Only a political movement can bring change in Iran, says analyst

 March 27, 2010

Despite the international outcry against the flagrant abuse of the human rights of the Iranian people by the Islamic regime, the systematic crackdown on opposition and dissident forces in the country continues unabated.

To find out how much more the Iranian people can bear, with the threat of prison or the gallows hanging over their heads, Shahrzad News’ Paris correspondent Maryam Raeesdana spoke to Iranian political sociologist Kazem Kardavani.

Maryam Raeesdana: Why have we not seen any significant change in the regime’s attitude to human rights? Where will this repression end?

Kazem Kardavani: There are two aspects to this issue, one relating to the situation inside Iran itself, and the other to factors outside the country. In the 1980s the Islamic Republic was condemned across the world for its gross human rights abuses and mass executions, and the international community of the time sympathized with the Iranian people. During Khatami’s presidency criticism of the regime continued, though not to the same extent. With the rise of Ahmadinejad, once again world’s attention has shifted towards the abuse of the Iranian people’s human rights. This has led to more United Nations debates on the issue, and the regime has become more and more isolated under international pressure to change its repressive policies.  Inside Iran the only way the regime can sustain its rule is by sending its opponents to prison or executing them. This policy is more indicative of the regime’s weakness than its strength. It is desperate. In today’s world, the survival of political systems in general can depend on a variety of factors, such as legitimacy, popularity, efficiency, national unity, and public consensus, but also on the use by the state of repression and an iron fist.

The current regime in Iran lacks all the rational and acceptable factors mentioned and is left only with the option of sustaining its rule through the use of force. This is not even the legal, legitimate force that many governments use to hang on to power, but instead contradicts the regime’s own written laws and regulations.

This leads to an unstable and fluid situation that cannot continue for long. When the Iranian people’s patience runs out completely is anyone’s guess, and we cannot predict exactly when change will come about. Nevertheless, we can see it emerging before our very eyes.

In the past if you spoke with the man or woman on the street about the issue of human rights, they could not entirely identify themselves with it. But now, after months of savage crackdowns on the massive civil rights movement, the way the ruling regime is trampling on the human rights of the Iranian people is gradually being understood by the population as a whole.

When this understanding becomes not just an idea but a material force, it will have the power to confront the regime and limit its repression. A political movement based on this popular understanding could bring about considerable change in Iran, as the regime’s position is very fragile at the moment.

The failure of such a movement would lead to more complications for Iranian society. If I may make a comparison, to some extent during Khatami’s presidency we made progress towards popularizing the issue of human rights, but our religious and secular intellectuals were divided on the issue and failed to follow through.